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Political Science

Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics

"A very timely book."鈥擜nne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America
How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations


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ISBN:
Published:
Sep 8, 2020
Copyright:
2020
Illus:
13 b/w illus. 8 tables.
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A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases鈥攓uirks of the brain we all share as human beings鈥攁re detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as 鈥渟trategic instincts,鈥� lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information.

Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases鈥攐verconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases鈥攚hen confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance.

Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.