In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey challenges the conventional belief that economic and technological progress is inevitable. For most of human history, stagnation was the norm, and even today progress and prosperity in the world鈥檚 largest, most advanced economies鈥攖he United States and China鈥攈ave fallen short of expectations. To appreciate why we cannot depend on any AI-fueled great leap forward, Frey offers a remarkable and fascinating journey across the globe, spanning the past 1,000 years, to explain why some societies flourish and others fail in the wake of rapid technological change.
By examining key historical moments鈥攆rom the rise of the steam engine to the dawn of AI鈥擣rey shows why technological shifts have shaped, and sometimes destabilized, entire civilizations. He explores why some leading technological powers of the past鈥攕uch as Song China, the Dutch Republic, and Victorian Britain鈥攗ltimately lost their innovative edge, why some modern nations such as Japan had periods of rapid growth followed by stagnation, and why planned economies like the Soviet Union collapsed after brief surges of progress. Frey uncovers a recurring tension in history: while decentralization fosters the exploration of new technologies, bureaucracy is crucial for scaling them. When institutions fail to adapt to technological change, stagnation inevitably follows. Only by carefully balancing decentralization and bureaucracy can nations innovate and grow over the long term鈥攆indings that have worrying implications for the United States, Europe, China, and other economies today.
Through a rich narrative that weaves together history, economics, and technology, How Progress Ends reveals that managing the future requires us to draw the right lessons from the past.
Carl Benedikt Frey is the Dieter Schwarz Associate Professor of AI and Work at the Oxford Internet Institute and Oxford Martin Citi Fellow at the Oxford Martin School, both at the University of Oxford. He is also a fellow at Mansfield College, the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford, and Lund University’s Department of Economic History. His books include The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation (91桃色).
“In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey gives a bold answer to one of history’s—and humanity’s—most essential questions: what drives technology and innovation? Epic in scope but packed with rigorous detail, it looks at what creates and reverses societal gains, asks how we should best manage the pursuit of new technologies, and hints at what, in the midst of an AI revolution, happens next. One of the key thinkers in the field, Frey delivers a grand, urgent must-read for anyone who cares about our past, present, and future.”—Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI
“Debates about AI fluctuate between hopes that it will bring us boundless capabilities and riches and fears that it will reduce us to servitude or worse. But in How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey shows that the real question is how human creativity and innovation will adapt to the age of powerful AI. I can’t imagine a better place to find answers than this far-ranging, intelligent book, which reminds us that human institutions and culture have always been critical to innovation and progress.”—Daron Acemoglu, Nobel Prize–winning economist and coauthor of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity
“Frey masterfully reveals why some nations thrive while others stumble in periods of technological upheaval. At a time when AI reshapes our world, this book offers vital lessons for political leaders seeking to harness innovation while avoiding the institutional traps that have derailed progress throughout history.”—Tony Blair, Executive Chairman of the Tony Blair Institute and former Prime Minister of Britain and Northern Ireland
"How Progress Ends is a deeply researched effort to come to grips with one of the most interesting questions in economic history: what drove innovation and economic growth in the past, and can it be sustained? In the best traditions of giants such as Joseph Schumpeter and Mancur Olson, Frey provides a thoughtful and erudite analysis that nobody interested in these questions can ignore."—Joel Mokyr, author of A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy
“Progress is often thought of as a succession of technologies, but major new inventions from the steam engine to generative AI disrupt societies before they deliver improved living standards. How Progress Ends is a fascinating account of the way culture and institutions interact with new technologies, concluding that conditions in the United States and China today point to a future of stagnation despite their dominance at the AI frontier.”—Diane Coyle, author of The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters
“Why do some eras and countries experience rapid technological advances while others stagnate? In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey draws on examples as diverse as Tsarist Russia, Mao’s China, and America’s AI boom to show how economic institutions promote or prevent technological progress, and how vested interests and monopolies mobilize to block change. Essential reading for anyone looking to understand the drivers of technological progress.”—Chris Miller, New York Times bestselling author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology
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